Forecast for Tighter Ending Stocks Shifts Crop Price Projections Higher
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USDA’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE, helped shape the crop price conversation heading into harvest. Unlike August, when the focus was on yield and acreage adjustments, the September report was more about the overall grain and oilseed picture and where supplies will end the year. For both corn and soybeans, the ending stocks outlook tightened enough for USDA to raise its season-average price forecasts.
For corn, USDA lowered the national yield forecast by 2.2 bushels to 178.5 bushels per acre. This September yield correction is now closer to where some analysts had predicted yield would fall back in August. Harvested acres were also reduced slightly, bringing expected production down to 15.8 billion bushels. USDA also lowered expected feed and residual use, but exports were left unchanged. With supply falling more than use, projected ending stocks declined, and USDA raised the 2026-27 season-average corn price forecast by 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel.
Soybeans were a different story. USDA raised the national soybean yield forecast by 0.1 bushel to 52.8 bushels per acre and also increased expected harvested acres. That pushed soybean production modestly higher than the August forecast. However, USDA also raised expected soybean exports by 25 million bushels. Stronger demand more than absorbed the larger crop forecast, lowering projected ending stocks to 310 million bushels and increasing the season-average soybean price forecast by 60 cents to $12 per bushel.
That is the key takeaway from the September report: price support came from different places. Corn prices were supported by lower expected production. Soybean prices were supported by stronger demand. In both cases, the common thread was tighter ending stocks.
Market reaction after the report was not identical across crops. Corn took the news more favorably, while soybeans were more uneven. That makes sense given the structure of the report. The corn story was cleaner: lower yield, lower production and lower ending stocks. The soybean story was more mixed: slightly higher supply, but also stronger demand and lower ending stocks.
Higher crop prices help, but input costs rose too
For producers, the report improves the pricing conversation, but it does not replace the breakeven conversation. Higher futures prices are helpful, especially compared with where markets were earlier in the year. But profitability still depends on individual farm math: yield, basis, crop insurance position, input costs, storage costs, interest expense and marketing decisions.
That matters as harvest and 2027 planning come together. The last two years have brought plenty of variables outside a farm’s control, including major weather events, tariffs, trade uncertainty, higher energy costs, fertilizer price movement and interest-rate pressure. Diesel prices, in particular, rose sharply this summer. Producers cannot control the broader economic forces resulting in higher input cost heading into harvest. They can control how well they know their own cost structure.
A $4.80 season-average corn price forecast and a $12 soybean price forecast sound more supportive than earlier outlooks, but those numbers mean different things on different farms. A farm with strong yields, disciplined costs and favorable basis may see a very different margin picture than a farm with lower yields, higher cash rent, weaker basis, higher borrowing costs or more exposure to fertilizer and fuel price increases.
Interest rates remain part of that calculation. This week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting could add another layer to the cost outlook, particularly for producers relying on operating credit or planning major equipment, land or working capital decisions. Inflation has been a driver of the rates conversation. Producer prices increased 0.4% in August and 5.4% year-over-year. More than three-fourths of the monthly increase in final-demand goods prices came from energy. Diesel fuel prices for producers jumped 24.1% in August.
Consumer inflation also remained well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, was 3.7% in July, and August data will not be released until Sept. 30, after the FOMC meets. The Consumer Price Index was 3.4% in August.
All of this adds up to a complicated equation. Prices are higher, but markets still have to work through harvest, demand and global trade questions. Local basis and individual farm cost structures add another wrinkle. For producers, the goal is to use the improved crop price environment to revisit breakevens, evaluate marketing opportunities and protect margins where possible.
Stay informed with more timely insights from Compeer’s AgEdge podcast and AgriMindset series. With crop prices improving but margins still tight, harvest is a good time to take another look at your grain marketing plan. In our next AgriMindset webinar on September 16 at 1 p.m., guest speaker Nick Tsiolis, founder and CEO of Farmer’s Keeper, will share data on local and national cash and basis trends and provide tips for developing a post-harvest marketing plan. Join us live or listen later at your convenience.
The information provided is accurate to the best of the author’s knowledge at time of publishing. It is presented “as is” with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy or timeliness, and without warranty. The information is educational in nature and not investment, legal, accounting, tax or other advice of any kind.
